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Prediction for CME (2026-06-19T03:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-19T03:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46923/-1
CME Note: Faint CME visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2. Not clearly visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 or GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The potential source is a filament eruption centered around S40E40 as seen in SDO AIA 304 imagery with liftoff starting around 2026-06-18T21:36Z. Dimming is also seen in SDO AIA 193 imagery. The eruption is not visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Preliminary glancing blow arrival observed at 2026-06-23T03:43Z characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components up to 10nT and minor increase in speed to ~360 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-23T03:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 2.67

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-22T10:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:2026-06-19 12:09
Radial velocity (km/s):409.572
Longitude (deg):-29.8
Latitude (deg):-27.5
Half-angular width (deg):26.5

Notes:

Lead Time: 73.32 hour(s)
Difference: 17.72 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2026-06-20T02:24Z

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